On August 15 2021, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau requested a snap election, and on 20 September, Canada will elect its 44th Parliament. I’ve polled Grindr in the United Kingdom and the United States on a number of previous occasions. This time, I asked 2,373 Grindr users in Canada who they’re supporting in this year’s federal election.

The following is a sample of the replies.

(Faces and penises have been censored.)

STATISTICS:

Of the 2,373 users I questioned, 537 responded. 144 respondents settled on a party. Here are the results:

FINAL GRINDR VOTE COUNT

Grindr backs Justin Trudeau for a third term.

To poll the country proportionally, in each province I questioned people until the number of responses I received was equivalent to that province’s number of electoral districts – 121 for Ontario, 86 for Quebec, 42 for British Columbia etc. (As I continued to receive responses from each area after I moved on, the final number of responses for each province usually exceeds my target.) Here is a province-by-province breakdown of the vote:

Ontario (826 polled, 202 responses)

Quebec (673 polled, 121 responses)

British Columbia (295 polled, 59 responses)

Alberta (237 polled, 49 responses)

Saskatchewan (93 polled, 31 responses)

Manitoba (64 polled, 24 responses)

Nova Scotia (53 polled, 16 responses)

New Brunswick (59 polled, 17 responses)

Newfoundland and Labrador (46 polled, 13 responses)

Prince Edward Island (16 polled, 6 responses)

Yukon (6 polled, 0 responses)

Nunavut (4 polled, 0 responses)

Northwest Territories (1 polled, 0 responses)

(I failed to receive any responses from the 3 territories, as my Grindr account was banned while I was polling them. However, each only comprise a single electoral district, and therefore each had a target of only 1 response; I decided it was not worth making a new account just to pick up those last 3 responses, and left them as is.)

Here is a full tally of non-vote responses:

And I have roughly divided the evasive or unclear responses into the following categories:

On November 2, New York City will elect its next mayor. Prior to that, on June 22, Democratic and Republican primaries will be held to select their candidates for the election. I’ve polled Grindr on a number of previous occasions (including the United States’ 2016 and 2020 presidential elections). This time – 4 months in advance of the actual mayoral election, but just a few days before the primaries substantially narrow the field – I asked 1,414 NYC Grindr users who they want as mayor.

The following is a sample of the replies.

(Faces in profile pictures have been censored.)

(Here’s the link to that.)

STATISTICS:

Of the 1,414 users I questioned, 294 responded. 90 of these respondents named real people or political parties, and I’ve counted all of those votes in the table below, irrespective of whether or not the people named are actual mayoral candidates.

Eric Adams receives the most first-preference votes from Grindr users.

The overwhelming majority of votes were for Democrats. This year, for the first time, the Democratic primary is using ranked-choice instant-runoff voting – you can choose a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th preference. (The Republican primary has only 2 candidates – Curtis Sliwa and Fernando Mateo. None of the respondents mentioned Mateo.)

I only asked each Grindr user for one candidate, but 11 respondents elected to tell me their additional preferences. Let’s see how those change the results.

To start with, here’s a table of just the Democratic candidates’ first-preference votes.

With the fewest votes, Ray McGuire is eliminated first.

His 1 voter did not give a 2nd preference, so this changes nothing. Next to be eliminated is Dianne Morales.

3 of her voters gave 2nd preferences, all for Maya Wiley. This puts her in the lead. We now eliminate Scott Stringer.

2 of his voters gave 2nd preferences. 1 gave their 2nd preference to Paperboy Love Prince, who received no 1st-preference votes and is not in contention. That user did not give a 3rd preference, and their vote dies here. The other 2nd preference was Kathryn Garcia.

Andrew Yang’s elimination changes nothing – none of his voters gave a 2nd preference. But 2 of the users whose 1st preference was Garcia gave 2nd preferences…

…both for Eric Adams. This means Adams and Wiley now tie for the lead – until we take into account the 3rd preference of the user whose 1st preference was Stringer and 2nd preference was Garcia. His 3rd preference was Maya Wiley.

Maya Wiley receives Grindr’s endorsement for the Democratic mayoral candidacy.

Here’s the full list of 2nd/3rd/4th/5th preferences:

3 candidates who did not receive any 1st preference votes appear here – Shaun Donovan, Art Chang, and Paperboy Love Prince. Another 3 candidates on the Democratic ballot did not receive any support at all – Aaron Foldenauer, Joycelyn Taylor, and Isaac Wright Jr.

Most responses were not counted as votes. Non-vote responses can be categorised as follows:

And evasive or unclear responses can be roughly divided into the following categories:

 
Thank you for reading. Click here if you want to see my other polls.

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